50 years of UK cancer data: death rates down by a fifth, but cases up

For the first time, our landmark Cancer in the UK Report has tracked cancer trends across 50 years of UK data. The findings are profound.  

Over the last 50 years, the proportion of the UK population dying from cancer (the cancer death rate) has fallen by more than a fifth (22%) – from around 328 per 100,000 people in 1973 to around 252 per 100,000 in 2023.  

These figures are a testament to the progress we’ve made in preventing, detecting and treating cancer. Today, 1 in 2 people diagnosed with the disease will survive it for at least 10 years, compared to just 1 in 4 in the early 1970s. And we’re on the cusp of many more improvements.  

Speaking from the world’s largest cancer conference, the American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) annual meeting in Chicago, Dr Catherine Elliott, our director of research, said that the studies she’d seen “send a message of hope to people affected by cancer”.   

“New drug combinations are boosting survival, blood tests are guiding treatment more accurately, and a landmark trial reveals that exercise can shift the course of people’s recovery,” Elliott said.  

But there’s still much more to do. When it comes to cancer cases, the trend is going up rather than down. 

Over the full 50 years covered in the report, the proportion of people in Great Britain (not including Northern Ireland) being diagnosed with cancer increased by almost half (47%) – from around 413 in 100,000 people in 1973 to around 607 per 100,000 people in 2023.  

This means that, though people are now less likely to die from cancer, we’re more likely to be diagnosed with it. And, due to the UK’s growing and ageing population, the actual numbers of both cases and deaths are rising.  

The data in the report shows that approximately 1,100 people will be diagnosed with cancer in the UK today, and more than 460 people across the country will die from the disease. We’re committed to doing all we can to push those numbers down, and we’re calling on governments across the UK to help drive the progress needed to prevent more cancers and save and improve more lives.   

Michelle Mitchell, our chief executive, said: “Over 460 people die from cancer every single day in the UK, and too many cases are diagnosed at a late stage. If we want to change that, we need bold action from the UK Government.  

“The upcoming National Cancer Plan for England must improve cancer survival and transform cancer services. If this plan is done right, it could save countless lives across England and ensure people affected by cancer live longer, better lives.” 

Improving survival by diagnosing cancer earlier 

The Cancer in the UK 2025 report shows the scale of the cancer challenge, but it also highlights the opportunities to build on everything we’ve achieved so far.  

One of the best ways to improve cancer survival is by detecting and diagnosing the disease earlier. Because of the way cancer grows and spreads over time, finding it early can increase the chances it will be successfully treated.  

Unfortunately, progress here has stalled over the last 10 years. Just over half of cancers (54%) are diagnosed at an earlier stage (stage 1 or 2) in England – a long way off NHS England’s ambition of diagnosing 3 in 4 cancers early by 2028. 

Screening can play a big part in changing that. It’s an effective way of diagnosing cancers before they begin to cause any symptoms, and data from the bowel, breast and cervical cancer screening programmes show that they save around 5,000 lives each year. However, in recent years participation in breast and cervical screening has decreased, so it’s vital to keep improving the service by identifying and addressing barriers to access. Our latest health inequalities analysis also points to the significant work needed to ensure that screening is accessible to everyone – no matter who they are or where they’re from.  

We also need to see improvements in the diagnosis process for people with cancer symptoms. Cancer waiting times are among the worst on record, and as the number of cancer cases continues to rise, the pressure on diagnostic services will only increase. That makes investment to expand diagnostic capacity and optimise care pathways essential. 

Making the changes to prevent more cancers  

The report also spotlights the fact that 4 in 10 cancer cases are preventable, calling attention to the opportunities we have to cut the number of people being diagnosed with cancer in the first place. 

That starts with tobacco. Smoking is still the biggest cause of cancer in the UK, leading to around 160 new cases every day and approximately 1 in 5 cancer deaths. 

The Tobacco and Vapes Bill, which is currently making its way through Parliament, offers a unique opportunity to stop future generations from ever starting smoking. If passed and implemented, the Bill would steadily raise the age of sale of tobacco by one year every year, meaning that no one born on or after 1 January 2009 could ever be legally sold tobacco. Around 350 young adults in the UK start smoking every day, so the change can’t come soon enough. 

Along with implementing and enforcing the law around age of sale, we also need to help people quit smoking. That requires governments across the UK to commit sufficient and sustainable funding to ensure that stop smoking support is accessible to all who need it. 

Government action will also be crucial in helping reduce obesity rates, which are higher than we’ve ever seen before and climbing. With around 1 in 20 cancer deaths in the UK linked to being overweight or obese, we need to see targeted action to reduce the incentives that push people towards unhealthy food and drink. In that regard, it’s positive to see that legislation restricting TV and online advertising of foods high in fat, salt and sugar will come into effect later this year. It’s an important early step on the journey from treating sickness to preventing it. 

The National Cancer Plan and beyond 

The improvements we’ve seen in cancer survival show how much we can achieve by focusing on the problem over the longer term. But as cases mount, it’s clear we can’t continue with the status quo. The UK Government’s recent commitment to lay out a National Cancer Plan for England, along with the Scottish Government’s ambitious Cancer Strategy, are a chance to create a real turning point for cancer. 

With sufficient funding, clear, targeted and comprehensive cancer plans could help us overcome the significant challenges around preventing, diagnosing and treating cancers across the entire UK. They’re also a vital chance for UK governments to ensure that the health system is set up in the best possible way to support research and bring its benefits to patients as quickly and efficiently as possible.  

“All of this exciting progress wouldn’t be possible without the funding that fuels discoveries,” said Elliot at ASCO. “And as the world around us rapidly changes, we need to harness the power of AI to transform how we prevent, detect, and treat cancer. Continued investment in research, alongside access to high-quality data, is essential to help people live longer, better lives, free from the fear of cancer.”