300,000 won’t start cancer treatment on time if waiting times don’t improve

More than 300,000 cancer patients in England won’t start treatment on time over the next five years if the Government doesn’t improve cancer waiting times performance before the next election, according to our latest projections. 

The number is based on current performance against the cancer waiting times target for people who are diagnosed with cancer after urgent referrals, which hasn’t been met in England since 2015. 

Although the NHS is already seeing more patients than ever before, the UK’s growing and ageing population means the number of cancer cases will keep climbing over the next five years. Our analysis suggests that there will be around 3.75 million urgent cancer referrals in England in 2029. That’s a 21% increase from 2023, when there were 3.1 million.  

The increase in referrals means a continued failure to meet performance targets will affect more and more people as time goes on. 

NHS England aims to begin treatment for 85% of cancer patients within 62 days of an urgent referral, but it has drifted further from meeting this target since last doing so in December 2015. In the first six months of 2024, just 65.9% of cancer patients in England were treated within the target time, meaning more than 30,000 patients started treatment later than they should. If performance stays at the same level between July 2024 and June 2029, a further 301,000 patients will be put in that difficult position.* 

The impact of delays to cancer treatment is hard to quantify and can vary for different cancers. However, one study estimated that a four-week delay to cancer surgery led to a 6-8% increased risk of dying, and delays can also reduce the treatment options that are available. Additionally, waiting causes major stress and anxiety for cancer patients and their loved ones.   

The new Health and Social Care Secretary, Wes Streeting, MP, has pledged that the NHS will meet cancer waiting time targets by the time the current parliament ends in 2029. The best way to achieve that is through a long-term plan for dealing with cancer, which would enable NHS England to quickly begin taking steps towards sustainable improvements in cancer waiting time performance and, ultimately, cancer survival.  

Our projections follow the publication of the Independent investigation of the NHS in England by Lord Darzi, which stressed that the NHS in England is in “critical condition” after years of underinvestment. According to the report, waiting times targets for people given urgent referrals are among the “the most important promises to the people” NHS England has failed to uphold since 2015.   

Prime Minister Keir Starmer responded to the report with an announcement that the Government is developing a 10-year plan for NHS England as a whole. 

Despite the pressure that the NHS is currently facing, we urge everyone to talk to their GP if they notice something that’s not right for them, and to keep trying if they struggle to get an appointment. It probably won’t be cancer, but GPs will want to hear from patients if they are worried about something, and if it is cancer, spotting it early can make all the difference.