More than 900,000 cancer deaths predicted in the next 5 years

There will be more than 900,000 cancer deaths in the UK by the end of the new government’s first parliamentary term, according to our latest projections.

This is a 17% increase on the number of deaths since the last parliamentary term in 2019. And by 2029 there will be around 2.2 million new UK cancer cases diagnosed.

But what’s causing this increase?

Well, the first reason is the UK’s growing population. While cancer mortality rates are projected to fall, as the population increases and more people get older the overall number of cancer cases and deaths will also climb.

But there are also a number of issues facing cancer care in the UK. Cancer waiting times show that services are struggling. For example, in England the 62-day (about 2 months) target for patients to receive their first treatment following a referral has not been met since 2015.

Meanwhile, the number of patients waiting longer than 104 days (about 3 and a half months) to begin treatment has grown. Our analysis shows that the percentage of cancer patients waiting at least 104 days to begin cancer treatment following an urgent suspected cancer referral in England has almost tripled in just 5 years.

It can be difficult to quantify exactly how increased waiting times affect patients, but evidence so far suggests that the impacts are likely negative. At an already stressful time, lengthy waits for a cancer diagnosis and treatment can have a serious impact on not only their mental health but their loved ones’ too.

Peter’s story – early diagnosis and late diagnosis

picture of Ali and Peter Tomlinson smiling together — Ali and Peter Tomlinson.

Peter Tomlinson, 81, was diagnosed with prostate cancer early thanks to his wife Ali, a doctor, in 2009. His early diagnosis meant he could be successfully treated with fewer doses of radiotherapy as part of our CHHIP trial.

Peter’s outcome was positive, but things were different for Ali. She was diagnosed with pancreatic cancer after experiencing pain in her tummy area in 2013. Although that treatment was also successful, Ali’s cancer came back. In 2019, she was diagnosed with stage 4 pancreatic cancer.

On top of the late-stage diagnosis, Ali’s treatment was affected by COVID-19. After her first six courses of chemotherapy stopped the cancer from spreading any further, doctors decided to pause for a short time to help protect her from the virus while her immune system was weak.

After a six-week break, Ali started her treatment again, but by then it was too late. Ali sadly passed away in the autumn of 2020.

Peter, who has been fundraising for Cancer Research UK since 1989, now knows as much about the value of timely cancer diagnosis and treatment as anyone.

“I worry that the health service is not geared up to deal with cancer,” he said. “My cancer was caught early – not by my GP, not by a consultant, but by my wife. She saved my life, basically. And I couldn’t do the same for her.

“GPs are under such pressure and I know that symptoms of early cancer can be difficult to spot, but then you’ve got the waiting time before the test [and] then you’ve got to wait for the results of the test.

“Has anyone tried to understand how that person feels waiting for something that is going to determine the course of the rest of their life? It is the most horrible, horrible feeling.

“The earlier cancer is diagnosed the greater the chances of it a) being cured and b) being managed. Somehow in this world we’ve lost sight of that and that to me is a great tragedy. It shouldn’t be happening.”

There’s no ‘quick fix’

There’s an urgent need for action to change the trajectory of cancer care in the UK.

But no one policy or ‘quick fix’ will transform cancer outcomes here. Progress in tackling cancer requires commitment to a long-term, fully funded cancer strategy. And this should include funding for research and innovation into better treatments, and a focus on prevention to ensure that fewer people get cancer in the first place.

“The UK Government must ensure they deliver on their commitments to tackle cancer and make the UK a world leader in cancer research and care,” said Michelle Mitchell, our chief executive. “There are no quick fixes or easy solutions – bold action is needed to help people live longer, better lives.”

That’s why, nearly a year ago we launched our manifesto, Longer, better lives: A manifesto for cancer research and care, urging the Government to take up our five missions to improve cancer outcomes for everyone.

Every moment matters for people with cancer, and so does every action. Sustainable actions and decisions to help cancer care in the UK will be a huge step forward for survival rates and ultimately will save more lives.