The cost of cancer: what does it mean for the UK economy?

We know that nearly one in two of us will get cancer in our lifetimes, and that it kills nearly 460 people every day. Thanks to those who speak out about their experiences, help direct our research and campaign for change, we can also begin to understand some of what cancer can mean on a personal level.

What’s been less clear until now is how cancer impacts our economy and society as a whole. It’s been difficult to tell what it means in terms of lost earnings, missed opportunities for people to contribute, and overall monetary costs.  

For the first time ever, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has published a report estimating the economic impacts of cancer around the world. Projecting forward until 2050, Tackling the impact of cancer on health, the economy and society gives us stark new insight into what cancer does to countries and communities, as well as individuals and families.

We believe the report can be a powerful tool for change. It shows how focusing on cancer can help drive the UK’s economic growth – and, crucially, it records the cost of doing nothing.

The cost of cancer

According to the OECD’s modelling, cancer could add £14.4bn to the UK’s health spending every year until 2050.  

That number is likely to be an underestimate, as it doesn’t include every type of cancer. It would also be much higher if we were focusing on cancer in isolation. The OECD’s calculation takes into account the fact that people who don’t get cancer will live longer and may get ill in other ways. It shows that improving how we prevent and treat cancer could save the UK billions, even though it will require the NHS to spend more on different types of care and treatment.

Overall, the OECD estimated that, without action, the UK’s health expenditure on cancer will increase by 52% per capita by 2050. That’s linked to the country’s growing and aging population, and broadly lines up with our own projections, which show that, if current trends continue, there will be over half a million cancer cases diagnosed every year by 2040. That’s up from the 2019 figure of more than 385,000 diagnoses a year. 

But it’s not just about money spent on treating cancer. The knock-on effects of the disease can impact our economy in multiple different ways. 

Many people may need to work part-time, exit employment or retire early due to cancer. On a national scale, that translates to big drops in productivity and workforce participation. Overall, the UK is projected to lose the equivalent of 170,000 full-time workers to cancer each year between 2023 and 2050. That’s more than enough to staff the NHS across the whole of Scotland – a loss in output costing an estimated £6.5bn annually. 

And the impacts can stretch into every aspect of life. As any cancer nurse will tell you, when someone has cancer, it’s not just the disease itself they have to deal with. It’s the emotional turmoil, having to tell their friends and family, broaching the subject at work, and coping with any side effects of treatment.  

Thanks to the report, we can now capture some of what that means for society as a whole; the projections to 2050 suggest that cancer will cause an additional 6,800 cases of depression in the UK every year.    

Then, most tragically, there are the lives that cancer cuts short. The OECD estimates that one in four (50,000) premature deaths (deaths before age 75) in the UK over the next 30 years will be down to cancer. Our own calculations suggest that the true number could be much higher.

What does cancer mean for the UK’s growth mission?

It’s clear that leaving things as they are simply isn’t an option; the cost of cancer is too great to ignore. If we fail to act, we make things worse.  

Thankfully, there’s broad agreement in the UK that greater investment in cancer prevention, research and care will improve lives, reduce healthcare costs and increase productivity. 

Following the publication of the Darzi Review into the state of the NHS in England, the Secretary of State of Health and Social Care, Wes Streeting, MP, said that “getting people back to health and work will not only reduce costs on the NHS, it will drive economic growth”. That understanding is also reflected in the fact that protecting people’s health is also a big part of the Government’s growth mission. 

The next step is to start turning these good intentions into concrete actions.  The Department for Health and Social Care has launched a consultation to shape a new 10-year health plan for England, and the Government has confirmed that it will be followed by a dedicated National Cancer Plan.  

This is welcome news. We’ve been campaigning for years for a long-term cancer-specific plan, and our Longer, Better Lives manifesto laid out a clear programme of policies to help the Government reduce cancer mortality in England.  

Now, in the midst of a cost-of-living crisis and in a tumultuous economic environment, we need to focus even more intently on what we know works: every penny invested by the government must reap rewards.

Investing in prevention

The most cost-effective way to improve health outcomes is to prevent cancer in the first place. Around 4 in 10 cases of cancer in the UK are preventable (2015), and the biggest overall cause of preventable cancers is smoking. Action on Smoking and Health (ASH) estimates that treating smoking-related illness (including cancer) costs the NHS approximately £1.9bn every year in England alone.

On a wider scale, the OECD report states that if international policy targets on tobacco were achieved, OECD countries could prevent 56,000 premature deaths every year, and save their health systems an annual total of €13.3bn in cancer costs.

And we can lead the way. The recently tabled Tobacco and Vapes Bill puts us on the path to ending cancers caused by smoking in the UK. We urge MPs across all political parties to vote in favour of this historic legislation, which will help create a future free from the harms of tobacco. 

Beyond the Tobacco and Vapes Bill, the UK Government needs to change its framework for investing in prevention. A broader way of evaluating spending decisions and priorities will help leaders take account of the bigger picture, meaning they can make the most of opportunities to reduce future pressures on the health service, increase productivity and strengthen the economy. Prevention programmes won’t always make quick headlines, but this OECD report shows that they can lead to huge rewards over the longer term.

Investing in cancer research

The UK has a thriving biomedical sector and has the opportunity to become a science superpower; but there’s something else that really sets it apart. Nearly two-thirds of the country’s non-commercial cancer research is funded by charities like Cancer Research UK.

This unique situation has helped us make some incredible breakthroughs, but it also creates a vulnerability. In the UK, long-term research programmes are funded through an annual cycle of charitable income generation, which can fluctuate according to the economic environment. Sometimes, this can make it more difficult for charities to provide the sustainable long-term funding needed to make significant breakthroughs against cancer.

At the same time, the public’s generosity means the Government is well positioned to make funding decisions that could have a big role in securing a stronger future for cancer research in the UK. By collaborating with government, other funders, industry, philanthropy and investors, we can maximise the impact of every pound.

The size of the prize

It’s important to remember that the biggest prize of all is saving lives. Investing in cancer research, prevention, diagnosis and treatment will do just that.  

But this OECD analysis also quantifies the economic benefits of improving cancer survival.  

The report estimates that, by making the improvements needed to match the best survival rates observed in the OECD and EU, the UK could prevent one in five premature cancer deaths and increase overall average life expectancy by six months. The impact to the economy would also be substantial, increasing the size and output of the workforce and, on average, adding the equivalent of 8,000 full-time workers each year until 2050.

Next steps

The Government has committed to taking a ‘mission-based’ approach to both growth and health. Importantly, this model recognises that health and prosperity are intertwined, and that it will take collaboration across government and society to achieve our goals in both areas.  

As such, in his role as health secretary, Streeting has made clear his plan to support the Government’s growth mission by improving the UK’s health, getting people back to work and boosting the economy through the country’s life sciences sector.

By laying bare the impact of cancer on the lives and livelihoods of people in the UK – and, therefore, on the UK economy – the OECD report leaves no doubt that Streeting’s plans must put a special focus on tackling cancer in particular.

We will be sharing that message as we work with the Government on its upcoming 10-year health plan. We are also excited to play our part in developing the subsequent National Cancer Plan for England.

Investing in cancer is investing in the country’s future, and this flagship OECD report shows just how high the cost of inaction is.

Annalisa Belloni is Cancer Research UK’s lead economist.