Over 6 million cancer diagnoses by 2040: charities call for bold action

Cancer cases have been rising across England for decades, largely driven by an ageing and growing population. 

Our new analysis looks to the future, and projects that between now and 2040 6.3 million new cancer cases are expected to be diagnosed across England.  

That’s a staggering number.

It’s important to remember that this number represents people. Behind every diagnosis is a person, and each person has a unique experience and story. And every person’s story is part of a bigger cancer puzzle that we need to solve.

In the 1970s, someone was diagnosed with cancer every four minutes in England. By 2040, our new analysis shows that this is expected to increase to one diagnosis every two minutes.  

These findings have brought us together with One Cancer Voice – a coalition of over 60 cancer charities across the country – to call on the UK government to take bold action. We want to see them deliver an important part of the cancer puzzle- a National Cancer Plan. 

Visualising the puzzle 

Yesterday, we joined with the other charities through One Cancer Voice and people affected by cancer outside Parliament- to show what these projections mean for different cancer types and different communities. 

Every cancer type is a different puzzle to solve, but only by looking at all the pieces together, can we improve cancer outcomes for everyone. 

Our jigsaw has a missing piece, because these cancer cases aren’t the end of the story. A bold, fully- funded National Cancer Plan, that delivers for everyone affected by cancer, could help solve the puzzle.

A plan to change lives 

A National Cancer Plan for England is expected later this year. Together with One Cancer Voice, we’ve set out six essential tests for the Plan to meet in order for England to become a world leader in tackling cancer.

1. Prevention. Deliver a clear plan to prevent cancer, including action on tobacco, obesity, HPV, alcohol, and genetic risk.  
2. Access. Meet all cancer waiting times, address cancer inequalities and ensure everyone can receive the best possible cancer care, no matter what their age, where they live or who they are.
3. Earlier Diagnosis. Outline a renewed commitment to the earlier diagnosis of cancer, and activities that support this, including public campaigns, implementation of evidence-based screening programmes and supporting primary care/GPs.
4. Treatment. Ensure all patients receive optimal (or best practice) treatments, including those that extend life for those living with incurable cancers.
5. Research and development. Improve patient access to relevant cancer clinical trials and make the NHS the world leading platform for cancer R&D.
6. Living with and beyond cancer. Deliver person-centred care that tackles unmet needs and improves the quality of life of every person living with cancer. 

There’s been incredible progress on cancer over the last few decades – since 1970, survival has doubled, and one in two people will now survive the disease. But with cases continuing to rise, this plan is a once in a generation opportunity to improve things even further.  

Crucial to meeting these tests will be funding from the government. Other countries like Denmark are making faster progress than us because they have long-term, well-funded cancer strategies, England can catch up, but only if the government is bold and ambitious. 

Ending the waits 

Cancer waiting times are a clear example of why bolder action is needed. The NHS in England aims to start treatment for 85% of cancer patients within 62 days of an urgent suspected cancer referral. But in the first half of 2025, over 50,000 people waited longer than this to start their treatment. It’s a period where every day can feel like forever, with unbelievable stress and anxiety for people waiting 

To ensure more people are treated on time the NHS needs investment in cancer staff and equipment, alongside reform – otherwise, thousands of patients will continue to face delays every month. 

Improvements in survival have not been shared equally across cancer types either. Between now and 2040, there are expected to be almost 3 million cases of rare and less common cancers, many of which have seen little improvements in survival. 

From late, to early, to not at all 

Spotting cancer early, when it’s easier to treat, is crucial to improving survival. Alongside the other charities, we’re calling for public awareness campaigns to help people understand the signs and symptoms of cancer, more support for GPs so they can better aid earlier diagnosis, and improvements to screening programmes. We know, for example, that fully rolling out lung screening across England could save 1,500 lives every year. 

There’s another way to save lives from cancer too – by preventing the disease from developing in the first place. There’s been phenomenal progress in reducing smoking rates in recent decades, but tobacco remains the biggest cause of cancer and premature death in the UK. We’re urging the UK Government to pass the Tobacco and Vapes Bill into law as quickly as possible, which could prevent future generations from ever smoking.   

Obesity and HPV are two other preventable causes of cancer where real progress can be made. Stronger restrictions on marketing of unhealthy food and drink could help tackle record obesity rates, while boosting HPV vaccination efforts will be essential to eliminating cervical cancer as a public health problem by 2040. 

Looking to the future 

Incredible breakthroughs are being made every month – from  uncovering cancer’s secret cues in the blood to finding  new ways to personalise treatment, but the National Cancer Plan will be essential in determining how much progress we can make on beating cancer for years to come.  

If it meets these six tests, we’ll be on the right track towards a future where people affected by cancer can live longer, better lives. We are calling on the government to take bold action, now.