Smoking rates falling fastest in the North of England, but progress is slowing

A new study that we funded, published today by a team of researchers at University College London (UCL), has revealed that smoking rates have fallen more quickly in the North of England compared to other regions.  

Historically, smoking rates have been higher in the North of England compared to the South, but this decline in smoking rates has helped to narrow significant gaps in smoking prevalence between different areas of the country. In fact, the study suggests that smoking rates in the North of England are now as low as in the South. 

Falling smoking rates 

As part of the study researchers at UCL analysed Smoking Toolkit Study data from 368,057 adults in England between 2006 and 2024. Spanning nearly two decades, the study aimed to examine how smoking rates differ across regions – including areas with and without dedicated tobacco control activity.* 

Overall, smoking rates have dropped across England, but this decline has slowed in recent years and progress is stalling in some regions.**  

The study found that over the past 18 years, the largest and fastest fall in smoking rates was in the North of England, where rates have nearly halved from 28.8% to 15.8%. This is compared to the South of England, where rates have fallen by around a quarter from 22.7% to 17.3%.  

What’s causing the fall? 

Fresh was set up in the North East of England in 2005 as the UK’s first dedicated regional tobacco control programme to help tackle the then worst rate of smoking-related illness and death in England.  

As part of the study, the researchers found that smoking prevalence fell by –13.3% in the North East – which was an area defined as having sustained tobacco control activity – compared to –9.3% in regions with none.  

“Smoking rates fell most in northern regions, where dedicated regional tobacco control programmes have been largely concentrated,” said Dr Sarah Jackson, lead author of the paper and principal research fellow at UCL’s Institute of Epidemiology and Health Care. 

“But across England progress has stalled in recent years, and in some regions smoking rates appear to be increasing. It’s vital that stop smoking services are made easily and equally available across the country, so that everyone – wherever they live – can access the right tools to quit for good.” 

While tobacco control initiatives have likely made a considerable impact on falling smoking rates, other factors including demographic shifts such as changing levels of deprivation could also have contributed.  

Welcoming the news 

The results of the study have been welcomed by Professor Sir John Burn, a leading cancer researcher in Newcastle who used to smoke 20 cigarettes a day.  

“I grew up in West Auckland, County Durham, a former pit village and began smoking before I started school. By the age of 17 I was smoking up to 20 cigarettes a day,” said Sir John.